Liquidity and Spreads: The Hidden Cost of a Prediction
A market's headline probability leaves out the price, quantity, and timing assumptions that determine what an order could actually receive.
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Market fundamentals
Start with the mechanics behind the number. These guides explain what a prediction market asks, how a contract’s price relates to its possible payout, and why an order book can tell a different story from a headline percentage.
Read the beginner’s guide first if event contracts are new to you. Then explore liquidity and spreads to see how available depth, execution prices, and timing affect interpretation. The worked examples use fictional markets so you can follow the reasoning without mistaking a sample for a live quote. Together, these articles build a vocabulary for asking better questions about probability, uncertainty, and market evidence.
Prediction Markets Explained: A Practical Beginner’s Guide
Learn what an event contract measures, how to read a market price, and why the resolution rules deserve your first look.
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