Read the question.
Then read the odds.

What a prediction market asks

A prediction market creates a defined way to take a position on an uncertain event. The subject could be an economic release, a sporting result, or another measurable outcome. The market’s actual question and rules determine what counts. A broad headline such as “Will inflation fall?” is not enough: which measure, which period, and which publication decide the result?

For a simple binary example, imagine a fictional contract that pays $1 if a clearly specified event occurs and $0 if it does not. A price of $0.60 may be discussed as a 60% market-implied probability under simplifying assumptions. That interpretation does not guarantee the outcome, and it does not tell you whether a particular order can be filled at that price.

Three things to read together

1. The event definition

Identify the precise condition, deadline, time zone, and named resolution source. Check the treatment of revisions, postponements, cancellations, or ambiguous outcomes. A detail that looks administrative can change the meaning of the contract.

2. The available market

Separate the displayed price from the best bid, best ask, and depth behind them. The difference between buying and selling prices is the spread. A small trade and a large trade may face different execution conditions. Our liquidity and spreads guide walks through a fictional example.

3. The evidence

Ask why someone might update a forecast. Has the underlying event changed, has new information arrived, or has the order book changed without new evidence? Record the reason for an interpretation before an outcome makes the story seem obvious.

How to compare two markets

Begin with a pair of rule summaries, not a pair of percentages. Two questions may refer to the same topic while using different cutoffs, thresholds, or sources. Our Polymarket and Kalshi comparison framework helps you check those details before drawing a conclusion.

Learn without making a trade

You can study questions, keep a forecast journal, and compare your reasoning with outcomes without placing an order. Write a probability, record the information available at the time, and revisit it only after the defined result is known. Track all the questions you selected, including the ones you got wrong.

Start with the complete beginner’s guide, or use the market glossary when a term is unfamiliar.

Primary reference: Kalshi: What are prediction markets?. Check the current documentation for product-specific details.