Liquidity and Spreads: The Hidden Cost of a Prediction
A market's headline probability leaves out the price, quantity, and timing assumptions that determine what an order could actually receive.
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Probability
A probability is a statement about uncertainty, not a promise about an outcome. This reading path connects the language of event contracts with the habits of careful forecasting: defining a question, stating assumptions, and evaluating a series of predictions after the results are known.
Compare the beginner’s explanation with the calibration article before treating a percentage as evidence of forecasting skill. The liquidity guide adds a market perspective: the number displayed on a screen can differ from the price available for a particular order. Read these pieces together to keep forecast quality, market interpretation, and execution conditions distinct.
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LLM Forecasting: Calibration, Scoring, and Honest Evaluation
A convincing explanation is only the beginning. Learn how to record forecasts, calculate Brier scores, and test calibration without hindsight.
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Prediction Markets Explained: A Practical Beginner’s Guide
Learn what an event contract measures, how to read a market price, and why the resolution rules deserve your first look.
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