Agentic Prediction Markets: Design a Research Agent You Can Audit
Design a research agent that preserves evidence, separates observations from inference, and lets a reviewer reconstruct every published forecast.
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Research methods
Strong prediction market research is a process that another person can inspect. These articles explain how to turn an open-ended market question into a bounded brief, preserve evidence, distinguish assumptions from observations, and document what an agent actually did.
The AI research article offers a practical structure for a brief; the agent article extends that structure into a sequence of recorded decisions. Read them together to design handoffs between people and software. Keep the original source context accessible, define when a result should be rejected, and leave unresolved questions visible instead of smoothing them into an apparently certain answer.
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AI for Prediction Markets: From Evidence to a Research Brief
Give AI a defined research task, a dated evidence set, and a reviewable output before asking it for a probability.
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